In its latest publication, titled “TELF AG discusses the present and future of the oil market,” TELF AG provides a comprehensive overview of the expected fluctuations in the oil sector in the coming months. The publication specifically outlines the various fluctuations, particularly in prices and consumption, while also analysing the specific factors poised to influence this market.
The publication commences with general considerations regarding the commodities market, discussing the typical fluctuations it experiences and the various factors that can influence it. These factors include economic growth levels in China and concerns about a potential recession. Among these influences, the slowdown of the global economy emerges as a pivotal factor likely to impact not only the commodities market in general but also the oil market in particular.
For oil, geopolitical factors will play a crucial role, especially those linked to international tensions and the actions of the United States, a significant global player capable of shaping market dynamics. The publication also touches on a theme directly related to the oil market, namely the ongoing global energy transition. As this transition progresses, the oil market may be influenced not only by traditional price fluctuations but also by the growing trend of transitioning away from fossil fuels in favor of clean energy. This shift aligns with international sustainability goals aimed at reducing emissions.
One of the notable forecasts highlighted in the TELF AG publication pertains to the potential oil market deficit in the third quarter of 2023. According to the EIA, this market could face a deficit of 0.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) in the third quarter, with an additional deficit of 0.2 mb/d in the fourth quarter.
Furthermore, the publication discusses a surprising development: in 2024, the oil market could experience a surplus for several consecutive quarters.
For a deeper understanding of these insights and forecasts, readers are encouraged to peruse the full publication.